Political stability and absence of violence in North Africa 2005-2023, by country

Political stability in North Africa remains a significant challenge, with all countries in the region recording negative index values in the political stability and absence of violence/terrorism index. As of 2023, Sudan recorded the lowest stability score in the region at -2.47. The country has seen a sharp and sustained decline in stability since 2020. This was in the aftermath of the 2019 protests, which led to the ousting of President Omar al-Bashir. The political situation worsened further in April 2023 as a result of the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), triggering widespread displacement and insecurity.

Corruption, repression, and media control

A lack of political freedoms and press freedom plays a significant role in shaping perceptions of instability. According to the World Press Freedom Index in 2024, countries like Egypt and Algeria fall into the categories of a “very serious” or “difficult” situation for media freedom, scoring 25.1 and 41.98 out of 100, respectively. Even relatively higher scorers such as Tunisia and Morocco remain in the “difficult” range. Limited press freedom and government control over information reduce transparency and restrict public oversight. This environment facilitates systemic corruption, as independent media are unable to investigate or report on abuses of power. Repressive state measures, including censorship and legal threats against journalists, further undermine institutional checks and balances. Combined with weak governance and the influence of organized crime, these dynamics contribute to persistent political instability across the region. 

Organized criminal networks

The consequences of restricted transparency are reflected in high levels of perceived corruption and deeply embedded criminal networks. According to the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, Libya scored just 13 out of 100, while Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia all scored below 40, indicating high public concern about government corruption. These concerns align with findings from the ENACT Organized Crime Index, which highlights the dominance of state-embedded actors and criminal networks in the region. With scores of 7.67 and 5.67 respectively, the data suggests that criminal activities are often closely tied to political and institutional power structures. This interconnection between corrupt governance and organized crime further erodes public trust and reinforces the perception, and reality, of chronic instability across North Africa.