U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2020-2025

Published by
Abigail Tierney
,
Jan 3, 2025

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Projected monthly probability of a recession in the United States from November 2020 to November 2025

CharacteristicProbabiliy of recession
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Showing entries 1 to 13 (61 entries in total)
Statistic: Projected monthly probability of a recession in the United States from November 2020 to November 2025

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Release date

December 2024

Region

United States

Survey time period

November 2020 to November 2025

Supplementary notes

*Projections

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