Monthly inflation rate and central bank interest rate in Brazil 2018-2025

Brazil's inflation rate and central bank interest rate have experienced significant fluctuations from 2018 to 2025, reflecting broader global economic trends. The country's inflation peaked at 12.13 percent in April 2020, followed by a gradual decline and subsequent rise, while the central bank adjusted its Selic rate in response to these economic dynamics. This pattern of volatility and monetary policy adjustments mirrors similar experiences in other major economies during the same period.

Global context of inflation and interest rates

Brazil's economic indicators align with the global trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses observed in many countries. Like Brazil, other major economies such as the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-2023 to combat inflationary pressures. However, a coordinated shift began in mid-2024, with many central banks initiating rate cuts. This global trend is reflected in Brazil's monetary policy decisions, as the country began reducing its Selic rate in August 2023 after maintaining it at 13.75 percent for several months.

Comparison with other economies

While Brazil's inflation rate reached 5.48 percent in March 2025, other major economies exhibited varying levels of inflationary pressure. For instance, China reported a deflationary rate of -0.1 percent, while Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 10.3 percent during the same period. The United Kingdom, which experienced similar volatility in its inflation rate, saw it peak at 9.6 percent in October 2022 before moderating to 2.6 percent by September 2024. These comparisons highlight the diverse economic conditions and policy responses across different countries, with Brazil's experience falling somewhere in the middle of this spectrum.