Voting intention for European Parliament 2024| Statista

In June 2024, the center-right European People's Party (EPP) won the European Parliament election. The EPP have recovered from a period in late-2021 and early-2022 when they were neck-in-neck with their closest rivals, the center-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) group, with the center-right having a two percentage point lead. Besides the national-conservative ECR party, no other group in the European Parliament managed to achieve more than twelve percent of the popular vote.

How do voters decide who to vote for in European Parliament elections?

Voting intentions for the European Parliament are more complex and hard to interpret than those for national elections. This is because the European elections encompass 27 countries, with an electorate of around 400 million people, across many linguistic and cultural boundaries. Many voters view the EP elections as being lower stakes than national elections, meaning that they are more willing to use it as a 'protest vote' or to lend their vote to the parties of the extremes. As the European Parliament lacks jurisdiction in the policy areas which define most national elections - taxation, public services, foreign policy - voters instead often use the vote to express their view on the European project itself, with voters of the populist and nationalist right (ECR and ID) coming out particularly strongly against further EU integration and expansion.

The issues which matter to voters in 2024

While the link between European Parliament elections and policymaking at the European level is obscure to many voters - parliament does not have the power to initiate legislation, but instead votes on proposals of the European Commission - there are certain issues which are set to dominate the 2024 elections. The EU's economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic is set to be a key issue of contention, as many voters in northern European countries have viewed the NextGenEU stimulus package as being a subsidy for governments of southern European countries who have had persistent fiscal problems since the Eurozone crisis of the 2010s. The EU's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is also likely to feature in the 2024 campaign, as the EU has been one of the strongest financial and military supporters of Ukraine, as well as promising to fast-track the eastern European country for EU membership. While Ukraine joining the EU continues to command support of the majority of citizens, certain countries in central and eastern Europe are more divided on this issue, notably Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria.

Voting intention for European Parliament election from 2019 to 2024, by party

Month	EPP (center-right)	S&D (center-left)	ECR (right)	Identity and Democracy (far-right)	Reform Europe (center)	Unaffiliated & Non-inscrits (various)	Greens/EFA (center-left/left)	The Left Group (left/far-left)
2024 Election	20.8%	18.8%	12.2%	9.4%	10.7%	12.5%	8.9%	6.7%
2024-03	23%	18.4%	11.2%	11.2%	10.6%	9.8%	8.1%	7.7%
2024-02	22.6%	18.9%	11.7%	11.6%	9.5%	10.7%	7.4%	7.5%
2024-01	22.6%	18.4%	11.3%	12.3%	9.5%	12.1%	6.9%	6.8%
2023-12	22.8%	17.9%	11.1%	12.1%	10.4%	13.1%	7%	5.5%
2023-11	22.4%	18.4%	11%	11.7%	10.7%	12.8%	7.2%	5.7%
2023-10	22.4%	18.5%	11.3%	11.3%	10.5%	12.6%	7.5%	5.9%
2023-09	21.3%	19.1%	11.8%	10.8%	9.9%	13%	7%	6.9%
2023-08	21.6%	19.5%	11.8%	10.5%	10.2%	13%	7.1%	6.1%
2023-07	20.6%	19.5%	11.5%	10.6%	10.5%	13.1%	6.9%	7.2%
2023-06	21.4%	18.7%	11.7%	10.5%	10.4%	13.4%	7%	6.9%
2023-05	20.7%	18.8%	11.7%	9.6%	10.8%	13.7%	6.9%	7.5%
2023-04	21.4%	18.2%	11.6%	9.6%	10.4%	13.8%	7%	7.8%