The median estimate of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 under current policies is 57 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO₂e). This results in an emissions gap of 16 GtCO₂e consistent with limiting global warming to below two degrees Celsius. If the unconditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, the emissions gap for a below two degrees Celsius scenario would be reduced to 14 GtCO₂e. The full implementation of conditional NDCs would reduce the emissions gap by a further three GtCO₂e.
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Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario
(in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)
Figures are rounded to full GtCO₂e. GHG emissions have been aggregated using IPCC AR6 global warming potentials over 100 years.
The emissions gap is defined as the difference between the estimated global GHG emissions resulting from full implementation of the latest NDCs and those under least-cost pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement temperature goal.
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UNEP. (October 24, 2024). Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved June 20, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP. "Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)." Chart. October 24, 2024. Statista. Accessed June 20, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP. (2024). Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: June 20, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP. "Projected Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Estimated Gap to Least-cost Pathways Consistent with Limiting Global Warming to Specific Levels from 2030 to 2050, by Scenario (in Billion Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent)." Statista, Statista Inc., 24 Oct 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP, Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/ (last visited June 20, 2025)
Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) [Graph], UNEP, October 24, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
