Winning chance of Eurovision 2025, by country| Statista

Before the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 takes place in Basel, Switzerland, comedy group KAJ, representing Sweden, was the hot favorite to win the competition with their song “Bara Bada Bastu”. As of May 16th, bookmakers predicted a winning chance of 42 percent for the Swedish song. This win would put the Scandinavian country ahead of Ireland in terms of most victories in the history of the contest.

However, just like the previous contest in 2024, this year's edition was also an example where predictions from betting odds aren't always accurate. On the evening of the final, Kaj actually finished in fourth position, neither receiving the most points with the jury, nor with the televote surprisingly. JJ won the 2025 contest with his song "Wasted Love" representing Austria.

Betting odds subdued to a multitude of different factors

During the entire period of one Eurovision season, betting odds keep swinging back and forth due to a vast amount of different events and aspects that are taken into account by bookmakers. Between November/December and the actual contest in May, the odds change almost daily. In this period, national broadcasters announce participants and their songs or hold national competitions, in which the public gets to select their representative. Simultaneously, participants perform their songs publicly on television or other engagements to promote their songs. In April, several pre-Eurovision parties take place, whose performances can stir the betting odds quite a bit. Last but not least, the performances on the Eurovision stage itself, including the week of rehearsals, keep the winning chances moving by the hour.

Spotify streams support the odds

While KAJ was constantly leading the betting odds for the win prior to the contest, they also gathered the highest amount of Spotify streams among all competing songs this year. Until one day before the Grand Final, their song managed to gather more than 43 million streams on the platform. However, Italy's entry to the competition, "Volevo essere un duro”, sung by Lucio Corsi, followed closely behind. The song being quite popular in Italy recorded nearly 40 million streams in the same period, despite only having a minimal winning chance at Eurovision according to the bookmakers.

Daily development of winning chance of finalists taking part in the Eurovision Song Contest between April and May 2025, by country

Characteristic	Sweden	Austria	France	Netherlands	Estonia	Finland	Israel	Switzerland	Albania	Germany	Italy	Luxembourg	Malta	Spain	Ukraine	United Kingdom	Armenia	Denmark	Greece	Iceland	Latvia	Lithuania	Norway	Poland	Portugal	San Marino
May 16	42%	21%	10%	5%	4%	4%	3%	3%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 15	38%	22%	6%	8%	3%	4%	4%	3%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
May 14	39%	23%	6%	7%	2%	3%	5%	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
May 13	42%	19%	6%	4%	2%	3%	5%	3%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 12	41%	20%	6%	3%	2%	3%	4%	3%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 11	36%	23%	7%	3%	2%	3%	5%	2%	1%	1%	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 10	34%	23%	8%	3%	2%	3%	5%	2%	1%	1%	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 9	34%	23%	8%	4%	2%	3%	6%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 8	35%	22%	8%	4%	2%	3%	6%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 7	36%	21%	7%	5%	2%	3%	6%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%
May 6	36%	20%	7%	6%	2%	3%	5%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%
May 5	35%	20%	8%	6%	2%	3%	5%	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%
May 4	38%	16%	8%	6%	2%	3%	6%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%
May 3	38%	16%	8%	6%	2%	3%	6%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%
May 2	39%	16%	8%	5%	2%	3%	6%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%
May 1	39%	16%	8%	5%	2%	3%	5%	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%
April 30	40%	15%	8%	5%	2%	3%	5%	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%
April 29	40%	15%	8%	5%	2%	3%	5%	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%
April 28	39%	15%	8%	5%	2%	3%	5%	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%
April 27	40%	15%	8%	5%	2%	3%	5%	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%
April 26	39%	15%	9%	5%	2%	3%	5%	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%