According to estimates, if President Trump's proposed tariffs go into effect permanently, the United States' GDP would decrease by 0.4 percent. Of this, 0.3 percent would be from the 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, while 0.1 percent would be from the 10 percent tariff on all imports from China.
As of February 10, China imposed retaliatory tariffs on the United States, with a 15 percent tariff on coal and liquid natural gas, and a 10 percent tariff on other exports, including oil, machinery, and large motor vehicles.
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Estimated impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs on the United States in 2025, as a share of GDP, capital stock, and pre-tax wages
The source states: Totals may not sum due to rounding. We model a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Mexico, a 10 percent tariff on all imports from China, and a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada excluding HTS codes 2709, 2710, 2711, and 2716, which are subject to a 10 percent tariff. Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, October 2024 and January 2025.
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Tax Foundation. (March 1, 2024). Estimated impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs on the United States in 2025, as a share of GDP, capital stock, and pre-tax wages [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved June 28, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1557480/estimated-impact-of-trump-tariffs-us/
Tax Foundation. "Estimated impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs on the United States in 2025, as a share of GDP, capital stock, and pre-tax wages." Chart. March 1, 2024. Statista. Accessed June 28, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1557480/estimated-impact-of-trump-tariffs-us/
Tax Foundation. (2024). Estimated impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs on the United States in 2025, as a share of GDP, capital stock, and pre-tax wages. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: June 28, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1557480/estimated-impact-of-trump-tariffs-us/
Tax Foundation. "Estimated Impact of President Trump's Proposed Tariffs on The United States in 2025, as a Share of Gdp, Capital Stock, and Pre-tax Wages." Statista, Statista Inc., 1 Mar 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1557480/estimated-impact-of-trump-tariffs-us/
Tax Foundation, Estimated impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs on the United States in 2025, as a share of GDP, capital stock, and pre-tax wages Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1557480/estimated-impact-of-trump-tariffs-us/ (last visited June 28, 2025)
Estimated impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs on the United States in 2025, as a share of GDP, capital stock, and pre-tax wages [Graph], Tax Foundation, March 1, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1557480/estimated-impact-of-trump-tariffs-us/
