Oscar Best Picture nominees holding the highest chance to win 2025

Published by
Laura Carollo,
Feb 28, 2025

Sean Baker's "Anora" held the highest winning chance at being crowned Best Picture at the 97th ceremony of the Academy Awards, based on predictions suggested by a mathematical model. At 52 percent of winning chance, it stood ahead of "Conclave", which scored about 15 percent chance of taking home the Best Picture prize.

Academy Award Best Picture nominees most likely to win at the 97th ceremony in 2025

CharacteristicWinning chance
Anora 52%
Conclave 15.2%
Emilia Pérez 8.9%
The Brutalist 8.8%
A Complete Unknown 5.5%
Wicked 2.8%
The Substance 2.4%
Nickel Boys 1.7%
Dune: Part Two 1.4%
I'm Still Here 1.3%
Showing entries 1 to 10 (10 entries in total)
Created with Highcharts 7.2.2Winning chance52%52%15.2%15.2%8.9%8.9%8.8%8.8%5.5%5.5%2.8%2.8%2.4%2.4%1.7%1.7%1.4%1.4%1.3%1.3%AnoraConclaveEmilia PérezThe BrutalistA Complete UnknownWickedThe SubstanceNickel BoysDune: Part TwoI'm Still Here
0%2.5%5%7.5%10%12.5%15%17.5%20%22.5%25%27.5%30%32.5%35%37.5%40%42.5%45%47.5%50%52.5%55%57.5%

© Statista 2025
Download
Show detailed source information?
Register for free
Already a member?
Log in
Sources

Use Ask Statista Research Service

Release date

February 2025

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2025

Supplementary notes

According to a mathematical model, which takes into account previous movie awards, critics scores and betting markets.

Citation formats
Access all statistics starting from $2,388 USD yearly *

* For commercial use only

Basic Account

For single users
$0 USD
Always free
Register now
Access limited to Free Statistics. Premium Statistics are not included.
  • Free Statistics
Based on your interests

Starter Account

For single users
$199 USD
per month, billed annually 1
Buy now
  • Free Statistics
  • Premium Statistics

Professional Account

For teams of up to 5 people
$1,299 USD
per month, billed annually 1
Buy now
  • Free + Premium Statistics
  • Reports
  • Market Insights

1 All prices do not include sales tax. The account requires an annual contract and will renew after one year to the regular list price.

Compare accounts

Statistics on " Academy Awards "

Other statistics that may interest you Academy Awards

Winners & nominees

8

Demographics & diversity

4

Box office & production budget

4

Audience

8

Trivia

8

Further Content: You might find this interesting as well

Topics

Academy AwardsMovie industry in the U.S. & CanadaGrammy Awards TV and movie award showsFilm industry in Latin America
All features, all contents, at all times: Learn more about our professional solutions.

* For commercial use only

Basic Account

For single users
$0 USD
Always free
Register now
Access limited to Free Statistics. Premium Statistics are not included.
  • Free Statistics
Based on your interests

Starter Account

For single users
$199 USD
per month, billed annually 1
Buy now
  • Free Statistics
  • Premium Statistics

Professional Account

For teams of up to 5 people
$1,299 USD
per month, billed annually 1
Buy now
  • Free + Premium Statistics
  • Reports
  • Market Insights

1 All prices do not include sales tax. The account requires an annual contract and will renew after one year to the regular list price.

Compare accounts
Learn more about how Statista can support your business.