Forecasted effect of Brexit on GDP in the UK 2016-2035
A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was 2.5 percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU. The estimated hit to the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) increases to three percent in 2024, and to 3.2 percent by 2025 in this forecast.
UK growth cut at start of turbulent 2025
After growing by 1.1 percent in 2024, the UK economy is expected to grow by one percent in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of two percent. As of 2025, the UK economy is approximately 4.4 percent larger than it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic five years earlier, which delivered a sudden and severe economic shock to the country. While the initial bounce back from this collapse was robust, the recovery slowed by the end of 2020, and it wasn't until late 2021 that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic size. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the economy continued to struggle, and even experienced a recession at the end of 2023.
How voters feel about Brexit in 2025
Since the middle of 2021, a growing majority of voters in Britain have advised that they think Brexit was the wrong decision. As of January 2025, around 55 percent thought it was wrong to leave the EU, compared with just 43 percent in April 2021. By comparison, the share of Britons who think Brexit was the right decision has fallen from 46 percent to 30 percent in the same time period. Voters are, however, still quite divided on what relationship they want with the EU, with only 31 percent supporting rejoining completely. Furthermore, Brexit has fallen behind other issues for voters such as the economy, the NHS, and immigration and the issue played a much smaller role in the 2024 election than it did in 2019.
